Pitchers and catchers have reported, and games have begun.. Spring Training is not only here, it's exciting! The White Sox haven't had the best record yet, going 1-6 to start, but its not even close to time to panic yet. The White Sox starting pitchers, including Frankenpatient Jake Peavy, have all logged in scoreless innings and have reported that all are healthy so far. Fingers crossed that it stays that way: while the addition of Adam Dunn and (yikes) Lastings Milledge upgraded the offense quite a bit, it won't make up for the fact that Juan Pierre and Brent Morel will get 400+ at bats yet have no power to speak of. This is still a White Sox team built around potentially phenomenal pitching.
While I wouldn't compare the Flying Sock's arms to the Phillies quartet of aces, I'd argue that if healthy the White Sox have a top 5 rotation. The scary thing about all of the aggressive moves that the Sox have made in the past few years is that there's no depth in the farm system. Disaster looms large if Peavy suffers a setback AND another starter gets hurt too. The model for this? The St Louis Cardinals. When Adam Wainwright got hurt last week, it put the Cardinals back on the bubble. When Chris Carpenter got hurt, they would've shifted from "wait and see" to a forced decision to go all-out to compete or make some moves to set themselves up to get ready for the next year. Those aren't enviable decisions, and hopefully they arent choices that the Sox will have to make either.
Showing posts with label White Sox Baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label White Sox Baseball. Show all posts
Friday, March 4, 2011
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Trade Idea
In the past decade the history of White Sox third basemen has been the story of Joe Crede, and everyone else that they've tried to use as a replacement. Its an ugly story. Crede was a strong defender and occasionally strong batter was the clear inheritor of the position, the first natural since Robin Ventura left after disputing the White Flag Trade. He also struggled greatly with health concerns, especially going into the 2008 season on, necessitating a solid Plan B for the position. Over time several candidates were tried out - Josh Fields, Juan Uribe, Gordon Beckham and most recently Mark Teahen (who was flat-out awful as both a batter and position player) and Omar Vizquel (who overperformed the position in all respects, despite being over 40 years old). And now, it looks like the job is Brent Morel's to lose.
Morel is being touted as the next coming of Crede, albeit in very rough form. There aren't any questions about his defense which has been solid at all levels and projects to remain solid, but his bat remains a question. Baseball experts have argued that the White Sox are approaching it as if they can sacrifice bat production from a traditionally strong offensive position in favor or Morel's plus defense. But, if the rumors are true, the Texas Rangers are shopping Michael Young, who is an average to poor defender at Third Base but who has a plus bat. If the Rangers are willing to eat some of the cash on the transaction, and take the lefty Teahen in return, this is a deal that could benefit both sides as it gives Morel more time to develop and the Sox a capable third baseman in their arm and bat race to beat the Twins. If the money can work out, it could be a great deal for both teams.
Morel is being touted as the next coming of Crede, albeit in very rough form. There aren't any questions about his defense which has been solid at all levels and projects to remain solid, but his bat remains a question. Baseball experts have argued that the White Sox are approaching it as if they can sacrifice bat production from a traditionally strong offensive position in favor or Morel's plus defense. But, if the rumors are true, the Texas Rangers are shopping Michael Young, who is an average to poor defender at Third Base but who has a plus bat. If the Rangers are willing to eat some of the cash on the transaction, and take the lefty Teahen in return, this is a deal that could benefit both sides as it gives Morel more time to develop and the Sox a capable third baseman in their arm and bat race to beat the Twins. If the money can work out, it could be a great deal for both teams.
Friday, February 4, 2011
What Jose Reyes means to Alexei Ramirez, and what Lastings Milledge means to Carlos Quentin...
Wednesday and Thursday were big days for the Chicago White sox with the extension of Alexei Ramirez and the minor league signing of Lastings Milledge.
The Alexei Ramirez Extension. Okay, so the official announcement is in: Alexei Ramirez agreed to an extension from the White Sox that pays $32 million for 2 arbitration years and 2 free agent years, with a club option for a third free agent year for another $10 million. I'm in complete support of this extension, as Ramirez just won a Silver Slugger award and is a legitimate Gold Glove candidate at a premium position. Oddly enough, most commentors seem to be eulogizing the end of Ramirez's cheapness, arguing paying market value like its a failure for the White Sox.
And its not difficult to see their point: singing a player to a big-time extension carries quite a bit of risk to it. If Ramirez struggles this year, the deal stings the White Sox as they have the prospect of overpaying Ramirez for that year, and again in the years to come. If, however, Ramirez has a repeat or an improvement on his 2010 season he could’ve asked for significantly more money and would earn his extension or perhaps even more. When trying to find a comparison player, many have argued that Stephen Drew is the more accurate comparison to Ramirez, as both players are young and locked in for years to come via extensions. I’d actually argue that Alexei’s contract is the inflation-impacted duplicate to the one handed to the Mets Jose Reyes.
Reyes had his arbitration years bought out for roughly $13 million while Ramirez is locked in at roughly $15 million. Reyes had one free agent year and one free agent option year bought out for $19 million; Ramirez has two free agent years bought out at $19 million, with a club option for a third year at $10 million in 2016. Reyes is actually a very good example of both the relatively team-friendly contract as well as Reyes will be a free agent at age 29 this offseason, and has a chance at pulling down a deal worth over $100 million if he has a healthy productive season, a contract which would almost surely result in a team overpaying him by the time his decline phase hits when he reaches his mid thirties (see, Adrian Beltre in 2013). Due to the fact that Alexei is older than Reyes, his contract carries extra value as it buys out his prime and early decline years, and the option ensures that should he fall off the cliff quickly the damage and cost to the team will be minimized. If Ramirez continues to perform the way that he's shown he can, and even if he just repeats his 2010 performance over the life of the contract, he'll have been worth the cash. Plus he seems to like it here, with the White Sox. Can't beat that, right?
Lastings Milledge
It looks like the search to replace Andruw Jones as capable right-handed bat / substitute outfielder is over at last! Milledge is, like many who have joined the White Sox over the years, on the redemption trail as he takes a lowball one-year offer with the hopes of having a strong season and signing for more money next year. While I would've preferred Hermida, larglely on a stronger defensive showing and less character baggage, Milledge is cheap and doesn't carry any obligations as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. It is worth noting that in a particularly crazy trade scenario should Milledge and Quentin prove themselves healthy and productive early in the season, Carlos Quentin could be traded for pitching depth and the Sox could rely on a right field platoon to make it through the rest of the season. As a moveable trade chip, only Quentin has the right combo of high offensive ceiling, multi-year control and affordability while only maintaining an achilles heel of health concerns. Should the White Sox pursue another starter during the year, and need to part with a major leaguer, Quentin's the only one whose loss could be somewhat hidden. Something to keep in mind, as the Sox move forward.
The Alexei Ramirez Extension. Okay, so the official announcement is in: Alexei Ramirez agreed to an extension from the White Sox that pays $32 million for 2 arbitration years and 2 free agent years, with a club option for a third free agent year for another $10 million. I'm in complete support of this extension, as Ramirez just won a Silver Slugger award and is a legitimate Gold Glove candidate at a premium position. Oddly enough, most commentors seem to be eulogizing the end of Ramirez's cheapness, arguing paying market value like its a failure for the White Sox.
And its not difficult to see their point: singing a player to a big-time extension carries quite a bit of risk to it. If Ramirez struggles this year, the deal stings the White Sox as they have the prospect of overpaying Ramirez for that year, and again in the years to come. If, however, Ramirez has a repeat or an improvement on his 2010 season he could’ve asked for significantly more money and would earn his extension or perhaps even more. When trying to find a comparison player, many have argued that Stephen Drew is the more accurate comparison to Ramirez, as both players are young and locked in for years to come via extensions. I’d actually argue that Alexei’s contract is the inflation-impacted duplicate to the one handed to the Mets Jose Reyes.
Reyes had his arbitration years bought out for roughly $13 million while Ramirez is locked in at roughly $15 million. Reyes had one free agent year and one free agent option year bought out for $19 million; Ramirez has two free agent years bought out at $19 million, with a club option for a third year at $10 million in 2016. Reyes is actually a very good example of both the relatively team-friendly contract as well as Reyes will be a free agent at age 29 this offseason, and has a chance at pulling down a deal worth over $100 million if he has a healthy productive season, a contract which would almost surely result in a team overpaying him by the time his decline phase hits when he reaches his mid thirties (see, Adrian Beltre in 2013). Due to the fact that Alexei is older than Reyes, his contract carries extra value as it buys out his prime and early decline years, and the option ensures that should he fall off the cliff quickly the damage and cost to the team will be minimized. If Ramirez continues to perform the way that he's shown he can, and even if he just repeats his 2010 performance over the life of the contract, he'll have been worth the cash. Plus he seems to like it here, with the White Sox. Can't beat that, right?
Lastings Milledge
It looks like the search to replace Andruw Jones as capable right-handed bat / substitute outfielder is over at last! Milledge is, like many who have joined the White Sox over the years, on the redemption trail as he takes a lowball one-year offer with the hopes of having a strong season and signing for more money next year. While I would've preferred Hermida, larglely on a stronger defensive showing and less character baggage, Milledge is cheap and doesn't carry any obligations as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. It is worth noting that in a particularly crazy trade scenario should Milledge and Quentin prove themselves healthy and productive early in the season, Carlos Quentin could be traded for pitching depth and the Sox could rely on a right field platoon to make it through the rest of the season. As a moveable trade chip, only Quentin has the right combo of high offensive ceiling, multi-year control and affordability while only maintaining an achilles heel of health concerns. Should the White Sox pursue another starter during the year, and need to part with a major leaguer, Quentin's the only one whose loss could be somewhat hidden. Something to keep in mind, as the Sox move forward.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
What extending Alexei Ramirez means...
For the past few years Alexei Ramirez has been one of the most frustrating and entertaining young players to watch. A Cuban defector, Ramirez profiled as a plus defender and plus bat at shortstop and second base, both premium positions. When he first made his introduction to White Sox fans, Ramirez played a strong defensive second base while Orlando Cabrera held down the shortstop position. After Cabrera's less than graceful exit from the ranks of the South Siders before the 2009 season, Alexei assumed ownership of the shortstop position and had one of the most frustrating seasons we've seen as it set the trends of performance that we'd continue to see from him throughout his tenure: namely inconsistency.
Offensively, Alexei is notorious for an incredibly poor start in April and May, linked to his background and the fact that he's never had to live or play in cold weather before. Once the temperatures inch back into the 70s, his bat heats up and he becomes an entirely different player. Defensively he is well known for his ability to both make flashy, difficult plays while failing to complete some of the more routine, boring tasks handed to him.
The most important factor in extending Alexei might concern the state of major-league shortstops in general. The position is one of the thinnest - if not the thinnest - positions in the major leagues as there are very few "bat plus glove" shortstops in the league. In almost every other case, unless the player is developed internally or the club can afford to pay top dollar the smaller or mid-market teams will pay for a "glove", or defensively strong, shortstop such as JJ Hardy, Brendan Ryan or Ryan Theriot. Alexei averages out to being a plus glove and bat shortstop, not quite in the same league as Troy Tulowitzky or Hanley Ramirez but definitely within the top 5 in the bigs.
If Dave Cameron from Fangraphs is correct, the average team will pay $1 per win over replacement. According to fangraphs, Alexei has been worth 6.9 wins above replacement for his career, which translates to the idea that if he was being paid what he was worth he would've made a little over $30 million - and he's only earned $4 over that time period. In average, Alexei's contract offers the White Sox a guarantee of 2 years further control over a strong player, with an option for a 5th year at a market value that is very team friendly. Definitely worth the shot.
Offensively, Alexei is notorious for an incredibly poor start in April and May, linked to his background and the fact that he's never had to live or play in cold weather before. Once the temperatures inch back into the 70s, his bat heats up and he becomes an entirely different player. Defensively he is well known for his ability to both make flashy, difficult plays while failing to complete some of the more routine, boring tasks handed to him.
The most important factor in extending Alexei might concern the state of major-league shortstops in general. The position is one of the thinnest - if not the thinnest - positions in the major leagues as there are very few "bat plus glove" shortstops in the league. In almost every other case, unless the player is developed internally or the club can afford to pay top dollar the smaller or mid-market teams will pay for a "glove", or defensively strong, shortstop such as JJ Hardy, Brendan Ryan or Ryan Theriot. Alexei averages out to being a plus glove and bat shortstop, not quite in the same league as Troy Tulowitzky or Hanley Ramirez but definitely within the top 5 in the bigs.
If Dave Cameron from Fangraphs is correct, the average team will pay $1 per win over replacement. According to fangraphs, Alexei has been worth 6.9 wins above replacement for his career, which translates to the idea that if he was being paid what he was worth he would've made a little over $30 million - and he's only earned $4 over that time period. In average, Alexei's contract offers the White Sox a guarantee of 2 years further control over a strong player, with an option for a 5th year at a market value that is very team friendly. Definitely worth the shot.
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