In the past decade the history of White Sox third basemen has been the story of Joe Crede, and everyone else that they've tried to use as a replacement. Its an ugly story. Crede was a strong defender and occasionally strong batter was the clear inheritor of the position, the first natural since Robin Ventura left after disputing the White Flag Trade. He also struggled greatly with health concerns, especially going into the 2008 season on, necessitating a solid Plan B for the position. Over time several candidates were tried out - Josh Fields, Juan Uribe, Gordon Beckham and most recently Mark Teahen (who was flat-out awful as both a batter and position player) and Omar Vizquel (who overperformed the position in all respects, despite being over 40 years old). And now, it looks like the job is Brent Morel's to lose.
Morel is being touted as the next coming of Crede, albeit in very rough form. There aren't any questions about his defense which has been solid at all levels and projects to remain solid, but his bat remains a question. Baseball experts have argued that the White Sox are approaching it as if they can sacrifice bat production from a traditionally strong offensive position in favor or Morel's plus defense. But, if the rumors are true, the Texas Rangers are shopping Michael Young, who is an average to poor defender at Third Base but who has a plus bat. If the Rangers are willing to eat some of the cash on the transaction, and take the lefty Teahen in return, this is a deal that could benefit both sides as it gives Morel more time to develop and the Sox a capable third baseman in their arm and bat race to beat the Twins. If the money can work out, it could be a great deal for both teams.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Friday, February 4, 2011
Chicago Book Review: Michael Lesy's "Murder City: The Bloody History of Chicago in the Twenties"
I'll admit that I was excited to kick off my month of reading nothing but books about Chicago with a good historical perspective on crime. Between the infamous turn of the century Everleigh brothel stories (inspiration for Sin in the Second City), dashing bank robbers (including John Dillinger, who died on the pavement in the Windy City) and mobbed up bootleggers (Al Capone, anyone?) there's more than a few stories to go around. The stories contained in Lesy's "Murder City" aren't cut of nearly the same mythical cloth. Lesy's book focuses solely on short vignettes used to illustrate just how Chicago police learned how to detect and prosecute murderers. They lack flash, for the most part, and are told in an anecdotal yet clinical way as if you were hearing the story of something really exciting happening retold by the world's most boring man. While it provides an interesting look into the development of the criminal justice system, it is neither rooted in enough fact to be truly intellectual nor is it told with enough flash to be interesting or insightful. In the end, the only thing Lesy killed in "Murder City" was any interest I'd have in ever re-reading the book.
What Jose Reyes means to Alexei Ramirez, and what Lastings Milledge means to Carlos Quentin...
Wednesday and Thursday were big days for the Chicago White sox with the extension of Alexei Ramirez and the minor league signing of Lastings Milledge.
The Alexei Ramirez Extension. Okay, so the official announcement is in: Alexei Ramirez agreed to an extension from the White Sox that pays $32 million for 2 arbitration years and 2 free agent years, with a club option for a third free agent year for another $10 million. I'm in complete support of this extension, as Ramirez just won a Silver Slugger award and is a legitimate Gold Glove candidate at a premium position. Oddly enough, most commentors seem to be eulogizing the end of Ramirez's cheapness, arguing paying market value like its a failure for the White Sox.
And its not difficult to see their point: singing a player to a big-time extension carries quite a bit of risk to it. If Ramirez struggles this year, the deal stings the White Sox as they have the prospect of overpaying Ramirez for that year, and again in the years to come. If, however, Ramirez has a repeat or an improvement on his 2010 season he could’ve asked for significantly more money and would earn his extension or perhaps even more. When trying to find a comparison player, many have argued that Stephen Drew is the more accurate comparison to Ramirez, as both players are young and locked in for years to come via extensions. I’d actually argue that Alexei’s contract is the inflation-impacted duplicate to the one handed to the Mets Jose Reyes.
Reyes had his arbitration years bought out for roughly $13 million while Ramirez is locked in at roughly $15 million. Reyes had one free agent year and one free agent option year bought out for $19 million; Ramirez has two free agent years bought out at $19 million, with a club option for a third year at $10 million in 2016. Reyes is actually a very good example of both the relatively team-friendly contract as well as Reyes will be a free agent at age 29 this offseason, and has a chance at pulling down a deal worth over $100 million if he has a healthy productive season, a contract which would almost surely result in a team overpaying him by the time his decline phase hits when he reaches his mid thirties (see, Adrian Beltre in 2013). Due to the fact that Alexei is older than Reyes, his contract carries extra value as it buys out his prime and early decline years, and the option ensures that should he fall off the cliff quickly the damage and cost to the team will be minimized. If Ramirez continues to perform the way that he's shown he can, and even if he just repeats his 2010 performance over the life of the contract, he'll have been worth the cash. Plus he seems to like it here, with the White Sox. Can't beat that, right?
Lastings Milledge
It looks like the search to replace Andruw Jones as capable right-handed bat / substitute outfielder is over at last! Milledge is, like many who have joined the White Sox over the years, on the redemption trail as he takes a lowball one-year offer with the hopes of having a strong season and signing for more money next year. While I would've preferred Hermida, larglely on a stronger defensive showing and less character baggage, Milledge is cheap and doesn't carry any obligations as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. It is worth noting that in a particularly crazy trade scenario should Milledge and Quentin prove themselves healthy and productive early in the season, Carlos Quentin could be traded for pitching depth and the Sox could rely on a right field platoon to make it through the rest of the season. As a moveable trade chip, only Quentin has the right combo of high offensive ceiling, multi-year control and affordability while only maintaining an achilles heel of health concerns. Should the White Sox pursue another starter during the year, and need to part with a major leaguer, Quentin's the only one whose loss could be somewhat hidden. Something to keep in mind, as the Sox move forward.
The Alexei Ramirez Extension. Okay, so the official announcement is in: Alexei Ramirez agreed to an extension from the White Sox that pays $32 million for 2 arbitration years and 2 free agent years, with a club option for a third free agent year for another $10 million. I'm in complete support of this extension, as Ramirez just won a Silver Slugger award and is a legitimate Gold Glove candidate at a premium position. Oddly enough, most commentors seem to be eulogizing the end of Ramirez's cheapness, arguing paying market value like its a failure for the White Sox.
And its not difficult to see their point: singing a player to a big-time extension carries quite a bit of risk to it. If Ramirez struggles this year, the deal stings the White Sox as they have the prospect of overpaying Ramirez for that year, and again in the years to come. If, however, Ramirez has a repeat or an improvement on his 2010 season he could’ve asked for significantly more money and would earn his extension or perhaps even more. When trying to find a comparison player, many have argued that Stephen Drew is the more accurate comparison to Ramirez, as both players are young and locked in for years to come via extensions. I’d actually argue that Alexei’s contract is the inflation-impacted duplicate to the one handed to the Mets Jose Reyes.
Reyes had his arbitration years bought out for roughly $13 million while Ramirez is locked in at roughly $15 million. Reyes had one free agent year and one free agent option year bought out for $19 million; Ramirez has two free agent years bought out at $19 million, with a club option for a third year at $10 million in 2016. Reyes is actually a very good example of both the relatively team-friendly contract as well as Reyes will be a free agent at age 29 this offseason, and has a chance at pulling down a deal worth over $100 million if he has a healthy productive season, a contract which would almost surely result in a team overpaying him by the time his decline phase hits when he reaches his mid thirties (see, Adrian Beltre in 2013). Due to the fact that Alexei is older than Reyes, his contract carries extra value as it buys out his prime and early decline years, and the option ensures that should he fall off the cliff quickly the damage and cost to the team will be minimized. If Ramirez continues to perform the way that he's shown he can, and even if he just repeats his 2010 performance over the life of the contract, he'll have been worth the cash. Plus he seems to like it here, with the White Sox. Can't beat that, right?
Lastings Milledge
It looks like the search to replace Andruw Jones as capable right-handed bat / substitute outfielder is over at last! Milledge is, like many who have joined the White Sox over the years, on the redemption trail as he takes a lowball one-year offer with the hopes of having a strong season and signing for more money next year. While I would've preferred Hermida, larglely on a stronger defensive showing and less character baggage, Milledge is cheap and doesn't carry any obligations as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. It is worth noting that in a particularly crazy trade scenario should Milledge and Quentin prove themselves healthy and productive early in the season, Carlos Quentin could be traded for pitching depth and the Sox could rely on a right field platoon to make it through the rest of the season. As a moveable trade chip, only Quentin has the right combo of high offensive ceiling, multi-year control and affordability while only maintaining an achilles heel of health concerns. Should the White Sox pursue another starter during the year, and need to part with a major leaguer, Quentin's the only one whose loss could be somewhat hidden. Something to keep in mind, as the Sox move forward.
Two Moves the White Sox Should Have Made... And One They Still Can Make
It has been an unexpectedly busy offseason for the Chicago White Sox. Trapped in between contending and rebuilding, Jerry Reinsdorf put his money where his mouth was and allowed Kenny Williams to spend big dollars on the club competing early. Its a welcome change as the South Siders have been notorious over the years for trapping themselves in relatively high payrolls (always in the top third) while the General Manager crys poor. One of the most fun games Sox fans get to play, every year, is the "which position will Kenny Williams gamble and pin its success on a rookie / AAAA player or washed up veteran" game. Dont get me wrong, this game has resulted in some memorable players over the years.
Think of rookie Brian Anderson's flame-out in 2006/2007, where we were reminded that being a high draft pick doesn't matter if you can't hit big-league pitching. Or how about AAAA (professional minor-leaguer) Dewayne Wise's legendary but unearned chances in 2009, where he hit a high point in making "The Catch" to save Mark Buehrle's perfect game, but also failed to hit at the plate. And who can forget Mark Kotsay, holding down the "washed-up veteran" position as he became our primary DH and backup First Baseman last year, and proceeded to become an out-machine. I think I need a drink now, having relived some of those memories.
This year, however, we have a big-time major league DH in Adam Dunn and brough back Paul Konerko after he had a career season with the club last year. The only achilles heel for the White Sox right now can be summed up in three words: Peavy and depth. The White Sox entered the 2010 season with a focus on pitching and defense based solely on the lack of big-time bats in the lineup and a solid starting rotation of Peavy, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd and Freddy Garcia, with Daniel Hudson in AAA but percieved as major-league ready. Over the course of the season, Freddy outperformed expectations and Peavy underperformed largely due to suffering an injury that - to date - has never happened to a big league pitcher before. Hudson was traded for Edwin Jackson in an attempt to land Adam Dunn, which backfired and left us with a high-ceiling high-pay pitcher going into a contract year, and minus one long-term cheap home-grown starting pitcher. This season, since we're going "all-in", most of the club's big moves have already been made and its time to make some moves to shore up the club since - as always - there is no help coming from the minor leagues this year. Below are some players the Sox should have pursued, and why, as well as a couple of names of players who could still help out the Pale Hose as they contend through the seasonm, listed by player and role.
Should've, but didn't...
Jeremy Hermida, Fourth Outfielder
As I'll address in a forthcoming post the roll of "Fourth Outfielder" - the guy who comes in and gives other players a rest / takes over while a player is on the Disabled List (DL) - is crucial, especially given Carlos Quentin's health history. Hermida is a bit of a failed uber-prospect, a player of whom great things were expected but who has not delivered on that promise. He can, however, be passable in all three outfield positions and while he can't hit left-handers he makes good contact against right-handed pitching. He'd be a good compliment to Mark Teahen, and the White Sox would essentially use Teahen / Hermida as a platoon Fourth Outfielder as the situation warrants. Hermida signed up on a minor-league contract with the Cincinnati Reds, and the White Sox have invited Lastings Milledge - a similarly geared underperforming uber-prospect to fill the role.
Justin Duchscherer, Fifth Starter
If you Google "Duchscherer" and "White Sox", you'll see that the club's attempts to trade for "The Duke" are longstanding and varied. At the moment, the Sox are entering into the season with their fingers crossed that Peavy will recover from his bizarre and potentially career-ending injury, with few options to cover the role of "ace" or "stopper" as the season drags on, a player with potentially filthy stuff and the head on his shoulders to use it. It sounds like they could use a low risk (cost), high reward pitcher and Duchscherer would've fit the bill perfectly. His contract demands seem to have been simple: he wants to be a starting pitcher, at all costs. Which would've been perfect for the Sox, a total win-win. If the Duke stayed healthy and excelled the Sox would've had options to maximize or move another pitcher, like Edwin Jackson or Buehrle, or kept him as Peavy insurance or even a six-man rotation. If he had a repeat of his 2010 performance - strong start followed by a season-ending trip to the DL - his low priced contract would've made it worthwhile but not prohibitive and the Sox would've won a few more games than if they go with a AAA or AAAA pitcher. The point is moot, however, as he signed with the Orioles on a $700,000 base contract with incentives.
Could still...
Jeremy Bonderman, Fifth Starter
Bonderman is a bit of a long-shot, mostly because he can still command a respectable salary in 2011 which wouldn't be a great fit for the White Sox's need for a warm-body pitcher. He does, however, bring familiarity of pitching within the division and is exactly the kind of reclamation project that Kenny Williams and White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper like. If the price is right, bring on the Bonderman, until he breaks again.
Scott Podsednik, Fourth Outfielder
Pods isn't the same guy that he was in 2005. Injuries have piled up, and the years of reckless running are having their effects, but Podsednik turned down a $2 million option year from the Los Angeles Dodgers and while frequently rumored appears to be struggling to find a home. Should he still be jobless at Spring Training, and is willing to accept a minor-league invite, Scotty would be more than welcome to come back to the South Side again. It's probably just a pipe-dream, though, since Pods will probably be signed by the strangely desperate Angels who might as well trade for Alfonso Soriano and make thier nightmarishly overpriced-outfield complete.
Think of rookie Brian Anderson's flame-out in 2006/2007, where we were reminded that being a high draft pick doesn't matter if you can't hit big-league pitching. Or how about AAAA (professional minor-leaguer) Dewayne Wise's legendary but unearned chances in 2009, where he hit a high point in making "The Catch" to save Mark Buehrle's perfect game, but also failed to hit at the plate. And who can forget Mark Kotsay, holding down the "washed-up veteran" position as he became our primary DH and backup First Baseman last year, and proceeded to become an out-machine. I think I need a drink now, having relived some of those memories.
This year, however, we have a big-time major league DH in Adam Dunn and brough back Paul Konerko after he had a career season with the club last year. The only achilles heel for the White Sox right now can be summed up in three words: Peavy and depth. The White Sox entered the 2010 season with a focus on pitching and defense based solely on the lack of big-time bats in the lineup and a solid starting rotation of Peavy, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd and Freddy Garcia, with Daniel Hudson in AAA but percieved as major-league ready. Over the course of the season, Freddy outperformed expectations and Peavy underperformed largely due to suffering an injury that - to date - has never happened to a big league pitcher before. Hudson was traded for Edwin Jackson in an attempt to land Adam Dunn, which backfired and left us with a high-ceiling high-pay pitcher going into a contract year, and minus one long-term cheap home-grown starting pitcher. This season, since we're going "all-in", most of the club's big moves have already been made and its time to make some moves to shore up the club since - as always - there is no help coming from the minor leagues this year. Below are some players the Sox should have pursued, and why, as well as a couple of names of players who could still help out the Pale Hose as they contend through the seasonm, listed by player and role.
Should've, but didn't...
Jeremy Hermida, Fourth Outfielder
As I'll address in a forthcoming post the roll of "Fourth Outfielder" - the guy who comes in and gives other players a rest / takes over while a player is on the Disabled List (DL) - is crucial, especially given Carlos Quentin's health history. Hermida is a bit of a failed uber-prospect, a player of whom great things were expected but who has not delivered on that promise. He can, however, be passable in all three outfield positions and while he can't hit left-handers he makes good contact against right-handed pitching. He'd be a good compliment to Mark Teahen, and the White Sox would essentially use Teahen / Hermida as a platoon Fourth Outfielder as the situation warrants. Hermida signed up on a minor-league contract with the Cincinnati Reds, and the White Sox have invited Lastings Milledge - a similarly geared underperforming uber-prospect to fill the role.
Justin Duchscherer, Fifth Starter
If you Google "Duchscherer" and "White Sox", you'll see that the club's attempts to trade for "The Duke" are longstanding and varied. At the moment, the Sox are entering into the season with their fingers crossed that Peavy will recover from his bizarre and potentially career-ending injury, with few options to cover the role of "ace" or "stopper" as the season drags on, a player with potentially filthy stuff and the head on his shoulders to use it. It sounds like they could use a low risk (cost), high reward pitcher and Duchscherer would've fit the bill perfectly. His contract demands seem to have been simple: he wants to be a starting pitcher, at all costs. Which would've been perfect for the Sox, a total win-win. If the Duke stayed healthy and excelled the Sox would've had options to maximize or move another pitcher, like Edwin Jackson or Buehrle, or kept him as Peavy insurance or even a six-man rotation. If he had a repeat of his 2010 performance - strong start followed by a season-ending trip to the DL - his low priced contract would've made it worthwhile but not prohibitive and the Sox would've won a few more games than if they go with a AAA or AAAA pitcher. The point is moot, however, as he signed with the Orioles on a $700,000 base contract with incentives.
Could still...
Jeremy Bonderman, Fifth Starter
Bonderman is a bit of a long-shot, mostly because he can still command a respectable salary in 2011 which wouldn't be a great fit for the White Sox's need for a warm-body pitcher. He does, however, bring familiarity of pitching within the division and is exactly the kind of reclamation project that Kenny Williams and White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper like. If the price is right, bring on the Bonderman, until he breaks again.
Scott Podsednik, Fourth Outfielder
Pods isn't the same guy that he was in 2005. Injuries have piled up, and the years of reckless running are having their effects, but Podsednik turned down a $2 million option year from the Los Angeles Dodgers and while frequently rumored appears to be struggling to find a home. Should he still be jobless at Spring Training, and is willing to accept a minor-league invite, Scotty would be more than welcome to come back to the South Side again. It's probably just a pipe-dream, though, since Pods will probably be signed by the strangely desperate Angels who might as well trade for Alfonso Soriano and make thier nightmarishly overpriced-outfield complete.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
February Book Experiment - Tales from Chicago
I've decided to try something new, this month. My daily commute can last anywhere from an hour to an hour and a half, each way, which leaves me with a lot of time on my hands. Most of the time I fill it by reading, listening to the iphone or watching a show on netflix (via iPhone!). This month, however, I'm going to try something different and read books only set in or about Chciago. I did an informal poll with some friends, and have a vague list of books that should provide some interesting insights into the city I grew up next to and now live in. Here's my list so far...
Michael Lesy, "Murder City: The bloody history of Chicago in the 1920's"
Mike Royko, "Boss: Richard J. Daley of Chicago"
Alex Kotlowitz. "There Are No Children Here"
Reymundo Sanchez, "My Bloody Life"
And I'll probably have to wing it for something to read in the last week.. I've already finished the Lesy book, review to come shortly.
Michael Lesy, "Murder City: The bloody history of Chicago in the 1920's"
Mike Royko, "Boss: Richard J. Daley of Chicago"
Alex Kotlowitz. "There Are No Children Here"
Reymundo Sanchez, "My Bloody Life"
And I'll probably have to wing it for something to read in the last week.. I've already finished the Lesy book, review to come shortly.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
What extending Alexei Ramirez means...
For the past few years Alexei Ramirez has been one of the most frustrating and entertaining young players to watch. A Cuban defector, Ramirez profiled as a plus defender and plus bat at shortstop and second base, both premium positions. When he first made his introduction to White Sox fans, Ramirez played a strong defensive second base while Orlando Cabrera held down the shortstop position. After Cabrera's less than graceful exit from the ranks of the South Siders before the 2009 season, Alexei assumed ownership of the shortstop position and had one of the most frustrating seasons we've seen as it set the trends of performance that we'd continue to see from him throughout his tenure: namely inconsistency.
Offensively, Alexei is notorious for an incredibly poor start in April and May, linked to his background and the fact that he's never had to live or play in cold weather before. Once the temperatures inch back into the 70s, his bat heats up and he becomes an entirely different player. Defensively he is well known for his ability to both make flashy, difficult plays while failing to complete some of the more routine, boring tasks handed to him.
The most important factor in extending Alexei might concern the state of major-league shortstops in general. The position is one of the thinnest - if not the thinnest - positions in the major leagues as there are very few "bat plus glove" shortstops in the league. In almost every other case, unless the player is developed internally or the club can afford to pay top dollar the smaller or mid-market teams will pay for a "glove", or defensively strong, shortstop such as JJ Hardy, Brendan Ryan or Ryan Theriot. Alexei averages out to being a plus glove and bat shortstop, not quite in the same league as Troy Tulowitzky or Hanley Ramirez but definitely within the top 5 in the bigs.
If Dave Cameron from Fangraphs is correct, the average team will pay $1 per win over replacement. According to fangraphs, Alexei has been worth 6.9 wins above replacement for his career, which translates to the idea that if he was being paid what he was worth he would've made a little over $30 million - and he's only earned $4 over that time period. In average, Alexei's contract offers the White Sox a guarantee of 2 years further control over a strong player, with an option for a 5th year at a market value that is very team friendly. Definitely worth the shot.
Offensively, Alexei is notorious for an incredibly poor start in April and May, linked to his background and the fact that he's never had to live or play in cold weather before. Once the temperatures inch back into the 70s, his bat heats up and he becomes an entirely different player. Defensively he is well known for his ability to both make flashy, difficult plays while failing to complete some of the more routine, boring tasks handed to him.
The most important factor in extending Alexei might concern the state of major-league shortstops in general. The position is one of the thinnest - if not the thinnest - positions in the major leagues as there are very few "bat plus glove" shortstops in the league. In almost every other case, unless the player is developed internally or the club can afford to pay top dollar the smaller or mid-market teams will pay for a "glove", or defensively strong, shortstop such as JJ Hardy, Brendan Ryan or Ryan Theriot. Alexei averages out to being a plus glove and bat shortstop, not quite in the same league as Troy Tulowitzky or Hanley Ramirez but definitely within the top 5 in the bigs.
If Dave Cameron from Fangraphs is correct, the average team will pay $1 per win over replacement. According to fangraphs, Alexei has been worth 6.9 wins above replacement for his career, which translates to the idea that if he was being paid what he was worth he would've made a little over $30 million - and he's only earned $4 over that time period. In average, Alexei's contract offers the White Sox a guarantee of 2 years further control over a strong player, with an option for a 5th year at a market value that is very team friendly. Definitely worth the shot.
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