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Friday, February 4, 2011

What Jose Reyes means to Alexei Ramirez, and what Lastings Milledge means to Carlos Quentin...

Wednesday and Thursday were big days for the Chicago White sox with the extension of Alexei Ramirez and the minor league signing of Lastings Milledge.

The Alexei Ramirez Extension. Okay, so the official announcement is in: Alexei Ramirez agreed to an extension from the White Sox that pays $32 million for 2 arbitration years and 2 free agent years, with a club option for a third free agent year for another $10 million. I'm in complete support of this extension, as Ramirez just won a Silver Slugger award and is a legitimate Gold Glove candidate at a premium position. Oddly enough, most commentors seem to be eulogizing the end of Ramirez's cheapness, arguing paying market value like its a failure for the White Sox.

And its not difficult to see their point: singing a player to a big-time extension carries quite a bit of risk to it. If Ramirez struggles this year, the deal stings the White Sox as they have the prospect of overpaying Ramirez for that year, and again in the years to come. If, however, Ramirez has a repeat or an improvement on his 2010 season he could’ve asked for significantly more money and would earn his extension or perhaps even more. When trying to find a comparison player, many have argued that Stephen Drew is the more accurate comparison to Ramirez, as both players are young and locked in for years to come via extensions. I’d actually argue that Alexei’s contract is the inflation-impacted duplicate to the one handed to the Mets Jose Reyes.

Reyes had his arbitration years bought out for roughly $13 million while Ramirez is locked in at roughly $15 million. Reyes had one free agent year and one free agent option year bought out for $19 million; Ramirez has two free agent years bought out at $19 million, with a club option for a third year at $10 million in 2016. Reyes is actually a very good example of both the relatively team-friendly contract as well as Reyes will be a free agent at age 29 this offseason, and has a chance at pulling down a deal worth over $100 million if he has a healthy productive season, a contract which would almost surely result in a team overpaying him by the time his decline phase hits when he reaches his mid thirties (see, Adrian Beltre in 2013). Due to the fact that Alexei is older than Reyes, his contract carries extra value as it buys out his prime and early decline years, and the option ensures that should he fall off the cliff quickly the damage and cost to the team will be minimized. If Ramirez continues to perform the way that he's shown he can, and even if he just repeats his 2010 performance over the life of the contract, he'll have been worth the cash. Plus he seems to like it here, with the White Sox. Can't beat that, right?

Lastings Milledge
It looks like the search to replace Andruw Jones as capable right-handed bat / substitute outfielder is over at last! Milledge is, like many who have joined the White Sox over the years, on the redemption trail as he takes a lowball one-year offer with the hopes of having a strong season and signing for more money next year. While I would've preferred Hermida, larglely on a stronger defensive showing and less character baggage, Milledge is cheap and doesn't carry any obligations as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. It is worth noting that in a particularly crazy trade scenario should Milledge and Quentin prove themselves healthy and productive early in the season, Carlos Quentin could be traded for pitching depth and the Sox could rely on a right field platoon to make it through the rest of the season. As a moveable trade chip, only Quentin has the right combo of high offensive ceiling, multi-year control and affordability while only maintaining an achilles heel of health concerns. Should the White Sox pursue another starter during the year, and need to part with a major leaguer, Quentin's the only one whose loss could be somewhat hidden. Something to keep in mind, as the Sox move forward.

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